A chorus of cycling greats — including Lance Armstrong, Alberto Contador, Fabian Cancellara, Mark Cavendish, and Alejandro Valverde — have weighed in on the escalating rivalry between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, warning that despite his dominance, Pogačar faces a significant threat in the form of his Danish rival.
Their concerns don’t center solely on legs or watts — but on the mental game, a crucial element they believe could tilt the balance in a showdown expected to define this summer’s Tour de France.
“Even for someone like Tadej, who looks invincible, the psychological battle is real,” said Armstrong on his The Move podcast. “Vingegaard has beaten him head-to-head in the Tour. That leaves a mark. And no matter how many races you win, that one sticks in your head.”
A Rivalry Written in the Mountains
Pogačar and Vingegaard have faced off in three consecutive Tours de France, with the Slovenian claiming victory in 2020 and 2021, and Vingegaard striking back with dominance in 2022 and 2023. Though Pogačar recaptured the yellow jersey in 2024 in a dramatic final-week comeback, many within the peloton still see Vingegaard as his only true equal.
Alberto Contador, a two-time Tour winner himself, emphasized the unique intensity of a Tour rivalry.
“Pogačar is spectacular — one of the best I’ve seen — but Vingegaard rides with this cold, calculated style that gets under your skin. He doesn’t panic. And that’s dangerous,” Contador said during a recent Eurosport broadcast. “In a three-week race, confidence is everything. And Pogačar knows Jonas can break him — because he has.”
Cancellara and Cavendish Weigh the Margins
Fabian Cancellara, Olympic gold medalist and a classics legend, noted the psychological edge that Vingegaard may quietly hold.
“Pogačar wins everywhere: Flanders, Liège, Lombardia… and that’s part of the challenge. When you’re winning constantly, the pressure to keep winning builds,” Cancellara said. “And if Vingegaard shows up in top form — focused only on the Tour — that creates this mental weight that’s difficult to shake.”
Mark Cavendish, no stranger to pressure himself as cycling’s all-time Tour de France stage win leader, highlighted the mental drain of expectation.
“Pogačar isn’t just racing others — he’s racing his own shadow,” Cavendish said. “He’s so good, people expect him to win everything. That’s exhausting. Meanwhile, Jonas is in the background, just preparing for one thing — to beat him in July. That’s a dangerous mindset.”
Valverde: “He Has to Choose His Battles”
Alejandro Valverde, the long-time Spanish all-rounder and former World Champion, offered perhaps the most pragmatic take.
“Pogačar can win everything — but he shouldn’t try to,” Valverde said. “He needs to choose his battles. Going full gas in the spring, then trying to beat Jonas in July? It’s heroic, but it’s also risky. The body and the mind can only take so much.”
Valverde compared it to his own experience balancing the Grand Tours with the classics.
“The more you win, the more you’re hunted. Sometimes it’s smarter to step back and arrive with hunger — not fatigue.”
Looking Ahead to July
With the 2025 Tour de France looming, the stage is set for another clash of titans. Pogačar’s extraordinary run of form, which includes dominant victories this spring, makes him the favorite on paper. But the experts are unanimous: Vingegaard’s quiet focus, surgical race planning, and psychological resilience make him a real and present danger — perhaps the only one capable of dethroning the Slovenian superstar again.
“It’s going to be fireworks,” Armstrong concluded. “But don’t be fooled — this isn’t just about legs. This is about who cracks first. And that mental edge could be the difference between glory and heartbreak.”
